Microsoft(US:MSFT) 美股研究社·2025-09-26 10:25Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is actively seeking to leverage artificial intelligence to drive large-scale adoption among enterprise customers, with core solutions like Microsoft 365 Copilot supported by OpenAI and Anthropic, providing users with greater flexibility and choice [1]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Strategy - As part of its growth strategy, Microsoft is expected to increase its capital expenditure by 63% in Q1 2026 to fulfill remaining obligations in cloud services, which will promote revenue growth in the coming quarters [2]. - Analysts reaffirm a "buy" rating for Microsoft stock with a target price of $664 per share, reflecting an EV/EBITDA of 21.43 times for FY 2027 [2][11]. Sovereign Cloud Initiative - Microsoft has launched the "Microsoft Sovereign Cloud," which includes sovereign public cloud, sovereign private cloud, and national partner cloud, addressing key barriers to overseas expansion, particularly data privacy concerns [2][3]. - The company plans to invest $4 billion in a second data center in Wisconsin, which will host numerous NVIDIA GB200 GPUs, contributing to a total investment of approximately $7.3 billion in the region [3]. AI Development and Adoption - The adoption rate of Microsoft 365 Copilot is significant, with over 100 million monthly active users by Q4 2025, allowing enterprise users to develop customized AI agents using internal data and workflows [4]. - Microsoft has upgraded its backend to the GPT-5 model, which includes a routing orchestration feature that optimizes search methods to reduce application costs [4]. Financial Performance and Projections - In Q4 2025, Microsoft reported a commercial order backlog of $100 billion, with an ending remaining performance obligation (RPO) of $368 billion, of which 35% is expected to be recognized as revenue in FY 2026 [6]. - For Q1 FY 2026, Microsoft forecasts net revenue of $76 billion and diluted EPS of $3.74, with Intelligent Cloud expected to be a core growth driver [7]. Cash Flow and Investment Outlook - Microsoft invested $24.2 billion in capital investments and financing leases during the quarter, with a year-over-year increase of 23% in capital expenditures [7]. - Free cash flow conversion rate remains strong at 94%, although it is expected to decline slightly in FY 2026 due to increased capital spending [8]. Valuation Analysis - Currently, Microsoft's EV/EBITDA valuation stands at 23 times, slightly above its historical median, but still reasonable compared to other large tech companies when excluding Oracle [9]. - Analysts believe that based on a 21.43 times EV/EBITDA for FY 2027, the fair price for Microsoft stock should be $664 per share, reaffirming a "buy" rating [11].