CM BANK(SH:600036) 招商银行研究·2025-09-26 11:04Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing strong growth driven by consumer spending, with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.3% for Q3, significantly higher than the previous half-year average [14][26] - However, employment figures are declining, with an average of only 27,000 new jobs added from May to August, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [16][19] - The divergence between strong economic performance and weak employment is attributed to structural factors and the lag in hiring adjustments by companies [21][22] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has restarted its rate-cutting cycle, lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% [16][26] - The dual monetary and fiscal easing is expected to support economic resilience, although inflationary pressures remain a concern [32][26] - The Fed's cautious approach to further rate cuts is influenced by the need to balance employment and inflation risks [32][26] Group 3: International Economic Context - The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have maintained their interest rates, with the ECB indicating no immediate need for further cuts [36][46] - The Eurozone is experiencing a mixed economic recovery, with manufacturing underperforming while services remain stable [36][37] - Japan's central bank is showing signs of potential policy normalization, with discussions around interest rate hikes becoming more prominent [46][47] Group 4: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in equities, particularly in sectors like technology and consumer goods, while being cautious of high valuations [49][50] - Fixed income investments are recommended to focus on short to medium-term bonds due to the uncertain long-term interest rate outlook [56][57] - Gold is expected to continue its bullish trend, supported by the Fed's rate cuts and ongoing central bank purchases [71][72] Group 5: Market Trends - The U.S. stock market is projected to continue its upward trend, driven by strong corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector [49][50] - The bond market is expected to experience a steepening yield curve, with short-term rates declining while long-term rates remain under pressure [56][58] - Currency markets are anticipated to see the U.S. dollar maintain a range-bound trading pattern, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy and global economic conditions [62][63]