Microsoft(US:MSFT) 美股IPO·2025-09-27 02:01Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that concerns about Microsoft being marginalized in the AI wave are unnecessary, upgrading Microsoft to "preferred" status with a target price of $625, indicating a 23% upside from the current price [2][3]. Group 1: Microsoft's Strategic Positioning - Microsoft is prioritizing its resources to serve enterprise clients with lower customer concentration, higher profit margins, and longer lifetime value (LTV) [5][9]. - The recent non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) with OpenAI signifies the evolution of their partnership, while Microsoft’s growth drivers extend beyond OpenAI, including strong growth in Azure cloud services and a solid ecosystem in enterprise productivity applications [5][10]. Group 2: AI Infrastructure and Competition - OpenAI has formed unprecedented partnerships with major tech companies, raising questions about Microsoft's competitive position in the GenAI field [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that Microsoft's decision to allocate some of OpenAI's computing needs to other suppliers reflects a strategic choice to maximize profits in a resource-constrained environment [6][9]. Group 3: Azure Growth and AI Business - Microsoft’s Azure AI business is projected to reach $10.4 billion in revenue by FY2025 and exceed $20 billion by FY2029, driven by ongoing investments and the enterprise cloud adoption trend [10][11]. - The diversification of AI-related business growth is evident, with Microsoft securing more AI cloud contracts outside of OpenAI, indicating a trend towards a more distributed revenue structure [11]. Group 4: Enterprise Applications and Productivity Ecosystem - Microsoft’s productivity applications (M365, Copilot, etc.) and its "digital office + knowledge worker" ecosystem are crucial for maintaining high customer stickiness against emerging AI challenges [13][15]. - Recent surveys show that 33% of enterprise customers have upgraded their O365 subscriptions to the higher-tier E5 version, with over half planning further upgrades, indicating strong demand for Microsoft’s productivity solutions [13].