KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 雪球·2025-09-27 04:02Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant increases in various indices over the past year, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks with technology attributes [3]. Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector, especially the liquor segment represented by Kweichow Moutai, has undergone over four years of adjustment [4]. - The liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations that the bottom is near [5]. - Other companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Haitian Flavoring and Food, Shuanghui Development, Yili Industrial, Qingdao Beer, Anjixin Food, and COFCO, have not yet capitalized on the bull market [6]. - Despite the lack of stock price increases, many companies in this sector have seen profit growth over the years [7]. Valuation Insights - The stagnation in stock prices is attributed to the overextension of valuations and expectations during the bull market from 2018 to 2021 [8]. - After three to four years of valuation digestion, the food and beverage industry is currently considered undervalued from a price-to-earnings (PE) perspective [9]. - Historical data shows that the current price levels are situated between one and two times below the average PE ratio, similar to the situation in 2018 [10]. Economic Context - As of September 2023, real GDP has begun to exceed nominal GDP, indicating a state of deflation [11]. - Historical instances of similar economic conditions occurred during the Asian financial crisis in 1998-2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 [13]. - There is a strong belief that the economy will gradually improve, leading the food and beverage industry to return to reasonable valuation levels [13]. Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, is expected to participate in the current bull market, albeit with a delay [13]. - This delay presents investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of patience in waiting for the right moment to invest and for prices to rise [14].