Caitong Securities(SH:601108) 陈兴宏观研究·2025-09-27 13:27Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continue to rise, with London gold increasing by 2% this week [2] - European and Japanese stock markets saw gains, while US stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq dropping by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Global bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points [2] - Oil prices also saw an uptick, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively [2] - The US dollar index strengthened by 0.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials are evident, with Powell indicating economic growth is slowing and employment risks are increasing, yet maintaining a neutral stance on future policy [4] - Concerns about inflation were raised by two FOMC members, while others advocated for quicker rate cuts [4] US Economic Dynamics - New home sales in the US surged by 20.5% month-on-month in August, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2022, attributed to lower mortgage rates and increased sales incentives from builders [9] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 3% [9] - The PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%, indicating stable inflation pressures [9] - A potential government shutdown looms if Congress fails to reach an agreement by September 30, with significant partisan disagreements complicating negotiations [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September, while the services PMI rose to 51.4, indicating a mixed economic outlook [17] - Japan's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4, the lowest since March, while the services PMI remained robust at 53 [17]