特斯拉：一场被 “完美定价” 的翻身仗

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around Tesla's valuation is intense, with concerns about stagnating electric vehicle sales and the potential loss of regulatory credit income, while some investors believe Tesla will lead in robotics and AI [1] Group 1: Electric Vehicle Business - Tesla's electric vehicle sales are projected to stagnate in 2024, with a potential double-digit decline in Q2 2025 [1] - In 2024, Tesla's automotive revenue decreased by 6% from $82.42 billion to $77.07 billion, with a more severe drop of 16% in Q2 2025 [6] - Tesla's market share has fallen from a peak of 80% to 38% in the U.S. by August 2024, indicating increased competition [7] Group 2: Regulatory Credits - Approximately 40% of Tesla's net income in 2024 came from regulatory credits, which is expected to decline significantly by 2027 [9] - Regulatory credit income was over $2.7 billion in 2024 but dropped by more than 50% to $438 million in Q2 2025 [9][10] - Analysts predict a 21% decline in regulatory credit income for the current year, with projections of $1.5 billion in 2025 and potentially zero by 2027 [10][11] Group 3: Robotics and AI - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is projected to be priced around $25,000, but the demand for 100 million units seems unrealistic [4] - Elon Musk claims that Optimus could contribute 80% of Tesla's revenue, but achieving this goal appears uncertain [4][5] - The potential market for autonomous ride-hailing is estimated to reach $43.8 billion by 2030, with Tesla's share yielding only $2 billion in net income, which is insignificant compared to its $1.3 trillion market cap [1] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is currently at Level 2, requiring human oversight, and has the highest accident rate among all brands [3] - Competitors like Waymo utilize advanced technologies such as LiDAR, which may give them an edge over Tesla's camera-only approach [3] - Tesla's automotive gross margin has shrunk from over 25% in 2022 to 16.7% in the first half of 2025, indicating pricing pressures from competitors [8] Group 5: Energy Business - Tesla's energy business has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing from $3.9 billion in 2022 to over $10 billion in 2024, and a gross margin of 26% [15] - The energy division's value is estimated at $88 billion, contributing positively to Tesla's overall valuation [16][17] Group 6: Service Business - The service business generated $10.53 billion in revenue in 2024, with a low gross margin of 6% but a growth rate of 13% [18] - Analysts estimate the service business's value at approximately $10.72 billion, reflecting its rapid growth despite lower profitability [19] Group 7: Overall Valuation - The combined value of Tesla's automotive, energy, and service businesses is estimated at around $192 billion, with a valuation range of $160 billion to $220 billion reflecting uncertainties in future growth [20][21] - Tesla's current market capitalization exceeds the estimated value of its existing businesses by more than six times, indicating a speculative investment environment [22]