JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 华尔街见闻·2025-09-28 13:25Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest outlook suggests that while the S&P 500 index may approach 7000 points by year-end, investors should be cautious of several potential short-term downward risks before enjoying this potential rally [1] Short-term Downward Risks - Seasonal Factors: Historical data indicates that in years where the S&P 500 has a year-to-date gain between 5%-25% by the end of August, the market performance in September and October tends to be lackluster, with a 50% chance of positive returns. The average return for September is 0.6%, and for October, it is only 0.1% [2] - Excessive Rebound: The current rebound since the April low has surpassed all years since 2015, except for 2020, indicating a potentially unsustainable rally [3] - Long-term Lack of Correction: The S&P 500 index has not experienced a significant correction for 93 days, matching the longest record since the fourth quarter of 2016 and 2023 [4] - Overheated Retail Sentiment: Retail investor sentiment is at a high, nearing levels not seen in a year, which can signal a market reversal [5] - Macro Events Materializing: The market has priced in a significant amount of expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, suggesting limited room for further easing in the short term [6] Long-term Optimism - Seasonal Factors as a Positive: Over a longer time frame, seasonal factors may actually favor upward movement, as historically, in years with a 5%-25% gain by August, there have been 42 instances (out of 47 years) where the market rose in the subsequent months, averaging a 6.2% increase [7] - Investor Positioning: The positioning model indicates that investor allocations are beginning to break out of a long-term downtrend, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the S&P 500 over the next one to two years [9] - Short Interest Dynamics: The number of stocks with short positions (20%-30% of float) remains near multi-year highs, while stocks with very low short interest are at a ten-year low, indicating persistent bearish sentiment that could fuel a short squeeze [9] - Historical Performance Post Fed Rate Cuts: Historically, the stock market tends to perform well in the six months following the Federal Reserve's initiation of "preemptive" rate cuts [9] - Consumer Cash Reserves: Record consumer cash reserves, defined as funds in checking, savings, and money market accounts, reached $21.8 trillion by Q2 2025, significantly higher than $14.8 trillion in Q4 2019, supporting economic resilience [10] - Economic Growth Supported by Cash: The ample cash reserves have driven consumption growth, contributing to an average real GDP growth of 2.9% from Q3 2022 to Q4 2024, with total household net worth reaching $167.2 trillion by Q2 2025, over 50% higher than in Q4 2019 [13]