SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源研究·2025-09-29 01:56Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant outflow of funds from the US technology sector and highlights the resilience of the US economy as indicated by the revised GDP growth rate, which has implications for global interest rate expectations [2][9]. Economic Data - The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, surpassing the previous 3.3% estimate, marking the strongest performance since Q3 2023 [2][9]. - Strong consumer spending and a decline in imports contributed to this upward revision, indicating economic resilience and cooling global rate cut expectations [2][9]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.20%, while the US dollar index increased by 0.55% to 98.2, remaining below 100 [2][9]. Market Movements - The article notes that the Asia-Pacific stock markets, including the Hang Seng Index, KOSPI, and Sensex, experienced significant declines, while commodities saw gains, with Brent crude oil rising by 4.60% and COMEX gold increasing by 2.83% [2][9]. - In the past week, there was a notable inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with domestic inflows of $29.83 million and foreign inflows of $24.80 million [3][11]. Fund Flows - The article reports that US equity funds saw inflows into real estate, industrials, and healthcare, while experiencing outflows from financials, communications, and technology sectors. Conversely, Chinese equity markets saw inflows into technology, finance, and consumer sectors, with outflows from infrastructure, energy, and real estate [3][11]. - Specifically, the US technology sector experienced an outflow of $43.3 million, while the Chinese technology sector saw an inflow of $35.5 million [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - As of September 26, 2025, the PE ratio percentiles for the S&P 500 and DAX were at 93.0% and 89.5%, respectively, indicating high valuations compared to historical levels. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index have recovered to above 50% but still have room for growth compared to US valuations [4][18]. - The article highlights that the equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite and other indices remains relatively high, suggesting better value in the Chinese stock market compared to global markets [4][18]. Risk Indicators - The S&P 500 index closed at 6643.70, above the 20-day moving average, with an increase in the put-call ratio indicating a more cautious market sentiment [5][9]. - The implied volatility for the Shanghai Composite options decreased significantly compared to the previous week, reflecting a stable outlook for the market [5][9]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key upcoming economic indicators include China's September manufacturing PMI and the US September non-farm payrolls and ISM services PMI [6][17].