Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2025-09-29 00:18Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that factors driving the U.S. economy towards "re-acceleration" include a loose financial environment, expectations of fiscal stimulus, AI capital expenditures, and a solid consumer base. This will significantly impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, particularly regarding whether the new Fed chair will lower rates below neutral levels during healthy economic conditions and whether they can raise rates to counter overheating if necessary [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs analysts report that the risk of the U.S. economy re-accelerating is increasing, supported by a resilient labor market, fiscal stimulus expectations, and a loose financial environment. They project a healthy annualized GDP growth rate of 2.6% for Q3 [2][3]. - The U.S. macroeconomic surprise index has recently surged, and initial jobless claims data is encouraging, indicating strong performance across multiple key economic indicators [3]. Group 2: Key Factors for Re-acceleration - The report identifies several key factors contributing to the risk of economic re-acceleration: - Loose financial conditions characterized by strong performance of risk assets, expectations of future rate cuts by the Fed, and a weaker dollar [4]. - Anticipated positive fiscal policy impulses in the first half of next year, alongside continued capital expenditures in the AI sector, are expected to provide growth momentum [6]. - A solid consumer base and the impact of deregulation are also highlighted as significant contributors [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Path - The monetary policy path for 2025 and 2026 presents a markedly different scenario, with the Fed's decisions heavily influenced by the new chair's policy inclinations. Key questions include whether the Fed will lower rates below neutral levels even when the economy is performing well and whether it can raise rates during a potential Trump administration to address economic overheating [7]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a baseline scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in both October and December of this year, depending on economic conditions [7]. - The current market measures of mid-2026 rate expectations indicate that the SFRM6/M8 spread is hovering around flat, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the risks of rate hikes [8].