JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 美股IPO·2025-09-29 05:08Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unprecedented situation where global capital expenditure is increasing rapidly while employment growth in developed markets is stagnating, highlighting a potential "decoupling" between investment and job creation [2][3][5]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - According to Morgan Stanley, global capital expenditure is projected to achieve an annualized growth rate of 11% in the first half of 2025, following a modest 4% growth in 2024 [2][5]. - This acceleration in capital spending is widespread across regions, indicating a significant increase in corporate equipment expenditure [5]. - The report notes that this is the slowest employment growth rate since the early recovery period following the global financial crisis, with a projected annualized growth rate of only 0.4% in developed markets for Q3 2025 [5][6]. Group 2: Diverging Employment Growth - The stagnation in employment growth is historically rare, as such a scenario has not occurred in the past 60 years of economic expansion in the U.S. [6]. - Weak employment growth is typically a reliable warning sign of an impending economic downturn, which is a primary reason for the Federal Reserve's potential reintroduction of easing measures [6]. Group 3: Optimistic Interpretation - An optimistic perspective suggests that the current situation may indicate a successful implementation of new technologies, leading to a "no-employment recovery" driven by productivity gains [8][9]. - The surge in AI-related capital expenditure is identified as a key driver of this investment boom, particularly in the technology sectors of the U.S. and Asia [9]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast of a 4% annualized productivity growth in the U.S. for Q3 supports this theory, suggesting that strong productivity growth could offset the negative impacts of a slowing labor supply [10]. Group 4: Pessimistic Warning - Conversely, a more cautious viewpoint warns that the current capital expenditure boom may be unsustainable and could represent a narrow rebound in technology-driven capital spending [11][12]. - The stagnation in employment growth may reflect a broader shift towards business caution, with companies investing in automation and technology to reduce long-term costs rather than expanding their workforce [12]. - Concerns are raised about a potential negative feedback loop, where declining labor income growth could erode consumer confidence and spending, ultimately leading to a broader demand recession [13][14].