亚马逊：市场对这个巨头的尊重还不够

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's stock performance has been underwhelming despite its leadership in the cloud infrastructure market and being the largest e-commerce company in the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Amazon's performance is lagging behind the non-essential consumer sector (XLY), where it constitutes over 20% of the index [3] - The long-term momentum supporting the Amazon/XLY trend appears to have dissipated, entering a consolidation phase [3] - Strong buying interest at similar levels in the past year suggests a potential opportunity for Amazon [3] Group 2: AWS and Competitive Landscape - AWS accounted for over 56% of Amazon's revenue in the past year, but faces potential market share risks in the IaaS sector over the next decade [4] - Competitors like Oracle and Meta are investing heavily in AI, which could challenge Amazon's dominance in IaaS [4][5] - Market sentiment may need time to reassess Amazon's IaaS scale and leadership amid increasing competition from Oracle, Meta, and OpenAI [5] Group 3: E-commerce and Advertising Strategy - The market is cautiously evaluating whether Amazon's e-commerce business can mitigate risks associated with its cloud services [8] - Despite potential headwinds, Wall Street remains optimistic about Amazon's margin growth, driven by operational leverage in e-commerce and AWS [8] - Amazon is deepening its advertising efforts to stabilize and enhance e-commerce profitability, leveraging proprietary data and inventory [8] Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Amazon aims to utilize its Prime membership pricing leverage to unlock value and showcase growth options not fully reflected in current pricing [9] - The company's ambitions in the "Kuiper project" and "moon landing plan" highlight its innovative capabilities beyond cloud infrastructure [9] - Despite recent relative weakness, the risk/reward profile appears favorable for Amazon to break through historical highs by 2025 [11] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Amazon's expected P/E ratio exceeds 30, indicating that optimism is priced in, but its PEG ratio of 1.88 suggests that profit margin growth potential is not fully recognized [11] - The market has yet to fully account for Amazon's potential margin growth as it leverages its current business to drive profitability [11]