大摩评“英伟达投资OpenAI”：争议再大，这也是实实在在的“重大利好”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Nvidia's investment in OpenAI will generate a potential incremental revenue of $350-400 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Scale and Impact - The agreement involves Nvidia assisting OpenAI in deploying 10 GW of computing power, which will create $350-400 billion in potential revenue, previously unaccounted for in market estimates [2][4]. - Nvidia's expected revenue growth for fiscal years 2027, 2028, and 2029 is projected at $60 billion, $45 billion, and $42 billion respectively, which is only a fraction of the required capacity increase compared to OpenAI's broader goal of 200 GW by 2033 [4]. - The transaction reflects a prudent risk control mechanism, with a total capital investment of $500-600 billion, of which $350-400 billion will flow to Nvidia, contingent on market valuations supporting the investment [4]. Group 2: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating for Nvidia, with a target price of $210, indicating a 19% upside from the current stock price [2][6]. - The current valuation is considered reasonable, with Nvidia's expected earnings per share for 2025 at $6.36, translating to a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 33 times [6]. - Nvidia's stock has risen 221% year-to-date, leading the semiconductor stocks covered by Morgan Stanley, with the current stock price at $178.19 [6].