摩根大通：美股年底冲击7000点前，面临五大短期下行风险

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley projects that the S&P 500 index may reach 7000 points by the end of the year, but investors should be cautious of potential short-term pullback risks [2] Short-term Downside Risks - Seasonal Factors: Historical data shows that in years where the S&P 500 index has a year-to-date gain between 5%-25% by the end of August, the market performance in September and October tends to be lackluster, with a 50% chance of positive returns. The average return for September is 0.6%, while October is only 0.1% [4] - Excessive Rebound: The current rebound since the April low has exceeded all years except 2020, compared to other low points since 2015 [5] - Long-term Lack of Pullback: The S&P 500 index has not experienced a significant pullback for 93 days, matching the longest record since the low points in Q4 2016 and Q4 2023 [5] - Overheated Retail Sentiment: Retail investor sentiment is at a yearly high, indicating potential market reversal signals [5] - Macro Events Realization: The market has already priced in a significant amount of expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts, limiting further easing pricing space in the short term [6] Long-term Outlook Remains Positive - Despite short-term risks, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive long-term outlook for U.S. equities, citing several reasons for potential further gains by year-end. Historically, in years with a year-to-date gain between 5%-25%, 42 out of 47 instances recorded gains averaging 6.2% from September to December [8] - The firm's positioning model indicates that investor positions in the U.S. market are beginning to break a long-term downward trend, suggesting further upside potential for the S&P 500 index in the next one to two years [8] - The Russell 3000 index shows a high number of stocks with short positions (20%-30% of float), while stocks with very low short positions are at a ten-year low, indicating persistent bearish sentiment that could drive prices higher in a short squeeze [8] - Historical data shows that stock markets typically perform well in the six months following the Federal Reserve's initiation of "preemptive" rate cuts [8] - Although recent inflows into U.S. stock ETFs have not been strong, there is usually a seasonal trend of strengthening towards year-end [8] Consumer Cash Reserves Support Economic Resilience - Morgan Stanley highlights the resilience of the U.S. economy as a key factor supporting its optimistic view, backed by record consumer cash reserves. The total consumer cash reserves reached a record $21.8 trillion by Q2 2025, significantly higher than $14.8 trillion in Q4 2019 [10] - All income groups, except the lowest 20%, have cash holdings adjusted for inflation that are 7% to 25% higher than in 2019, with checking account balances surging from $1.53 trillion in Q4 2019 to $5.42 trillion in Q2 2025, indicating funds available for near-term consumption [10] - This ample cash has driven consumption growth, contributing to an average real GDP growth of 2.9% from Q3 2022 to Q4 2024, while total net worth of U.S. households reached a new high of $167.2 trillion in Q2 2025, over 50% higher than in Q4 2019 [12] - Based on its "tactical bullish" stance, Morgan Stanley advises treating any market pullbacks as buying opportunities [12]