SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-10-07 11:06Global Macro Assets - Major overseas stock indices mostly rose during the National Day holiday period, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.1% respectively [3][8] - Gold prices reached a new high, rising by 4.0%, while oil prices fell significantly, with WTI and Brent crude down by 7.5% and 8.3% respectively [3][20] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 7.0 basis points to 4.13%, and the dollar index fell by 0.5% [12][14] Overseas Economic Data - The U.S. government entered a shutdown due to Congress's failure to pass a temporary funding bill, with potential impacts on GDP estimated at only 0.02% for a month-long shutdown [4][25] - The ADP employment report for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000 [45][46] - High City Sanna was elected as the new president of Japan's ruling party, potentially becoming the first female Prime Minister, advocating for tax cuts and fiscal expansion [30][31] Domestic Events and Data - The intensity of travel during the National Day holiday decreased compared to the May Day holiday, with an average daily flow of 154 million people, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [5][55] - Cross-border travel and specialty tourism remained popular, with significant increases in bookings for border tourism [6][72] - The new round of growth stabilization plans focuses on quality and efficiency rather than mere scale expansion, emphasizing the need for balance between supply and demand [6]