Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-10-07 11:30Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, an increase of $600 or nearly 14% from the previous forecast of $4,300, driven by a 17% rise in gold prices since August 26 due to "sticky" fund inflows, primarily from Western ETF investments and central bank purchases [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Forecast and Drivers - The forecast indicates a potential 23% increase in gold prices over the next two years, with central bank purchases contributing 19 percentage points and a 5 percentage point contribution from increased ETF holdings due to Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][8]. - The key drivers of the recent gold price surge are identified as Western ETF inflows and central bank purchases, contrasting with stable speculative positions [4][8]. - Despite the higher starting point, Goldman Sachs maintains its expectation of a 23% price increase by the end of 2026, reflecting structural changes in the gold market driven by central banks and institutional investors [5][10]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases and Market Dynamics - Central bank purchases are expected to average 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, with emerging market central banks likely to continue diversifying their reserves into gold, contributing significantly to the projected price increase [8][9]. - The structural growth in central bank purchases is largely attributed to the trend of reserve diversification following the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, with expectations that this trend will persist for three years [9][10]. - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, projected to be 100 basis points by mid-2026, are expected to boost Western ETF holdings, contributing positively to gold price increases [8].