价值是怎么回归的？贵州茅台、中国中免和海天味业为例！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of value return in investments, emphasizing that there are two primary ways for a company's value to return: price return and profit growth [3][4]. Price Return - Price return occurs when a company's stock price reverts to its intrinsic value, regardless of market speculation. For instance, a company valued at 10 yuan may be speculated to 30 or 50 yuan, but without performance growth, it will eventually return to around 10 yuan [3][4]. - An example is Guizhou Moutai, which peaked at 2600 yuan in February 2021, corresponding to a market value of 3.25 trillion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 69 based on 2020 net profit of 46.6 billion yuan. After a four-year adjustment, it stabilized around 1250 yuan, illustrating a price return process [6][8]. Profit Growth - Profit growth is the second method of value return, where a company's earnings increase can justify a higher valuation. Guizhou Moutai's profit growth over the years shows a consistent upward trend, with expectations of surpassing 100 billion yuan in net profit in the near future [7]. - The article highlights that many companies experience price return rather than profit growth, as sustained performance growth is rare. For example, China Duty Free Group peaked at 400 yuan in February 2021, with a market value of 830 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 136 based on 2020 net profit of 6.1 billion yuan. It later adjusted to a low of 53 yuan, demonstrating a significant price return [10][12]. Market Behavior - The article notes that 90% of companies experience value return through price adjustments rather than profit growth. This trend is evident in various sectors, including the food industry, where companies like Haitian Flavoring peaked at 219 yuan in January 2021, with a market value of 12.8 trillion yuan and a P/E ratio of 200 based on 2020 net profit of 6.4 billion yuan. It later adjusted to a low of 33 yuan [14][16]. - The author emphasizes the importance of recognizing market patterns and the cyclical nature of investments, advising investors to focus on whether a company is undervalued rather than just its quality [17].