CATL(SZ:300750) 高工锂电·2025-10-02 11:57Core Viewpoint - A significant paradigm shift is occurring in the global power battery supply chain, moving from a quarterly order and market negotiation-based procurement model to a long-term capacity locking strategy involving substantial investments [3][4][26]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The procurement model is evolving into a capacity locking battle, with industry giants like CATL investing heavily to secure high-quality production capacity [3][4]. - CATL's recent investment in Jiangxi Shenghua, a subsidiary of Fulian Precision, highlights the trend of terminal companies transitioning from "purchasers" to "controllers" of core resources [4][26]. - The urgency to secure production capacity is evident across the battery supply chain, with unprecedented cooperation agreements being established [6]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - CATL has signed a long-term supply agreement with Longpan Technology, committing to supply 157,500 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials from 2026 to 2031, valued at over 6 billion yuan [7]. - Huayou Cobalt's partnership with LG Energy Solution to supply 76,000 tons of ternary precursors from 2026 to 2030 indicates deep integration of Chinese material suppliers into overseas battery production plans [9][11]. - Xiamen Tungsten's collaboration with Zhongwei New Materials aims to secure a total of 345,000 tons of ternary precursors and cobalt oxide over the next three years, emphasizing upstream resource stability [12][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain is experiencing a "arms race" driven by strong market demand and concerns over upstream resource uncertainties [17]. - Battery production is ramping up, with a projected 35% year-on-year increase in demand, prompting manufacturers to secure long-term supply agreements [18]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the cobalt market, are intensifying supply concerns, leading companies like Huayou Cobalt to act preemptively [19]. Group 4: Price Trends - The combination of surging demand and supply constraints is leading to price increases across the battery materials sector [20]. - Battery cell prices have risen significantly, with some manufacturers reporting increases of 4% to 8%, and prices for small capacity cells exceeding 0.4 yuan/Wh [22]. - The price recovery signals a turning point for the industry, shifting bargaining power back to upstream manufacturers [23][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing strategic shift from just-in-time production to ensuring supply chain resilience marks a new era for the industry [27]. - Companies that can secure upstream resources early will gain a competitive advantage in the transition to a fully electrified future [28]. - The upcoming 2025 High-Performance Lithium Battery Conference will address these trends and provide insights into the future of the lithium battery industry [29].