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Core Viewpoint - The global DRAM super cycle has officially arrived, leading to a prolonged supply tightness in memory products [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Since the second quarter, DDR4 prices have been rising, which has also led to an increase in DDR5 prices, putting cost pressure on consumers with installation needs [1] - Micron Technology and SanDisk have announced price hikes, with SanDisk increasing prices by over 10% and Micron notifying channel partners of a 20% to 30% increase [1] Group 2: Drivers of Demand - The explosive growth of AI is driving DRAM products into a new super cycle [2] - The core driver is the widespread application of HBM, particularly as tech giants actively develop customized ASIC chips to enhance AI system performance [4] Group 3: Supply Constraints - The rapid development of AI is placing unprecedented pressure on DRAM capacity, with each AI computing cluster requiring a significant amount of HBM, further increasing the demand for basic DRAM wafers [5] - Global DRAM suppliers currently have only about three weeks of inventory, a near seven-year low, significantly below the industry average of ten weeks, indicating a rapidly increasing supply-demand imbalance [5] Group 4: Future Projections - Major tech companies, including AMD and NVIDIA, have a substantial demand for HBM, and the market's demand expectations for DRAM are further elevated as these companies develop AI ASIC chips [6] - UBS analysts predict that OpenAI's upcoming ASIC chips will utilize 12-layer stacked HBM3E technology, potentially consuming 500,000 to 600,000 DRAM wafers per month globally between 2026 and 2029 [6] - OpenAI's Stargate supercomputing cluster is expected to consume 900,000 DRAM wafers monthly, accounting for about 40% of global supply, elevating the strategic importance of DRAM to that of advanced process chips [6] - In the short term, suppliers will struggle to significantly increase capacity, as major DRAM manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have shifted some production lines to HBM products and upgraded to 1c nm processes to enhance capacity [6] - The concentration of global DRAM capacity in South Korea poses a key challenge for the industry in meeting the massive demand from the AI sector in the coming years [6] Group 5: Future Technology - With the upcoming introduction of next-generation technologies like HBM4, demand is expected to further expand, accelerating the growth of the DRAM industry [7] - Expanding DRAM supply remains the only way to meet the strong demand for HBM from tech giants [8]