Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股研究社·2025-10-06 07:10Core Viewpoint - Tesla's third-quarter delivery data exceeded market expectations, but this may be attributed to a "pull-forward" effect due to the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit at the end of September, leading to concerns about weaker performance in the fourth quarter [1][7]. Delivery Performance - In Q3, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, a record high, surpassing analyst expectations of 448,000 by approximately 11% [2]. - Despite the strong delivery numbers, Tesla's stock price fell by 1-2%, likely due to market anticipation of a demand decline in Q4 [2]. - Year-over-year, the delivery volume increased by only 7% compared to 463,000 vehicles in the same quarter last year, falling short of Elon Musk's target of 50% annual growth [2][8]. Product Mix and Financial Implications - The delivery structure increasingly favors the lower-priced Model 3 and Model Y, with their share rising from 95% to 97%, while the share of higher-priced models like Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck has decreased to just 3% [3]. - This shift towards lower-priced vehicles is likely to result in declining average selling prices and profit margins, which could negatively impact financial performance [4]. Energy Business Performance - Tesla's energy business showed strong performance in Q3, with energy storage deployments reaching 12.5 GWh, a year-over-year increase of 81% [5]. - Although this segment is smaller and more volatile, it remains a crucial growth area for the company [5]. Future Demand Concerns - The strong Q3 delivery figures were significantly influenced by the policy-driven demand surge, which is expected to lead to a decline in Q4 sales as the demand pull-forward effect dissipates [7]. - The cancellation of the tax credit may reduce the price advantage of electric vehicles over gasoline cars, further impacting demand for pure electric vehicle manufacturers like Tesla [7]. Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that investing in Tesla may not be advisable at this time, given the limited growth in deliveries, unfavorable product mix, and the temporary nature of the demand boost from government incentives [8]. - Tesla's current valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 270, appears significantly overvalued relative to its growth prospects [8]. - Future potential from new ventures like robotics and AI vehicles remains uncertain and speculative [9].