TSMC(US:TSM) 半导体行业观察·2025-10-04 02:14Core Viewpoint - Advanced packaging has become a critical battleground for wafer foundries and packaging companies, driven by the slowing of Moore's Law and the explosive demand for AI and HPC solutions. Major players globally are accelerating capacity expansion to seize this key industry opportunity [2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The global advanced chip packaging market is expected to grow from $50.38 billion in 2025 to $79.85 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% [2]. - The demand for high-performance, low-power packaging solutions is being fueled by AI large models, autonomous driving, cloud computing, and edge computing [2]. Group 2: TSMC's Strategy - TSMC's advanced packaging revenue is projected to exceed 10% in 2024, surpassing ASE to become the largest packaging supplier globally [4]. - TSMC is investing $100 billion in the U.S. to build three wafer foundries and two advanced packaging plants, with plans to start construction in the second half of next year [6]. - TSMC's advanced packaging technologies include InFO for mobile/HPC chips, CoWoS for logic-HBM integration, and SoW for wafer-level AI systems [4][6]. Group 3: Samsung's Position - Samsung is taking a more cautious approach to advanced packaging, having previously shelved a $7 billion investment plan due to uncertain customer demand [7]. - Recent contracts with Tesla and Apple highlight the necessity for Samsung to reconsider its advanced packaging investments [7][8]. - Samsung's integrated model of "memory + foundry + packaging" is seen as advantageous in the AI era, positioning it to restart large-scale advanced packaging initiatives once customer demand stabilizes [8]. Group 4: ASE's Developments - ASE is enhancing its advanced packaging capabilities in Kaohsiung, focusing on high-end capacities like CoWoS and SoIC [9]. - ASE's new facilities and technology advancements aim to create a flexible multi-package platform to meet diverse customer needs in the AI/HPC wave [10]. Group 5: Amkor's Expansion - Amkor is expanding its advanced packaging facility in Arizona, increasing its land area and total investment to $2 billion, with a focus on high-performance advanced packaging [12]. - The new facility will support TSMC's CoWoS and InFO technologies, crucial for Nvidia and Apple's latest chips [13][14]. Group 6: Domestic Players - Chinese packaging companies like JCET, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huada Semiconductor are rapidly advancing in the global advanced packaging landscape [16]. - JCET is investing in various advanced packaging technologies and has launched the XDFOI® series for high-density heterogeneous integration [17]. - Tongfu Microelectronics has deepened its partnership with AMD, becoming its largest packaging supplier and achieving significant progress in large-size FCBGA technology [18]. - Huada Semiconductor is exploring CPO packaging technology and has completed various advanced packaging techniques [20]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The focus of competition is shifting from "nano-process" to "system integration," with the U.S. aiming to establish a comprehensive capability in both front-end manufacturing and back-end packaging [22]. - Domestic OSAT companies are transitioning from a "filling" role to a "breakthrough" role, with the potential to compete with international players in specific niches [22].