Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股研究社·2025-10-09 11:28Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has evolved from a chip design company to a dominant player in AI infrastructure across multiple verticals, making it difficult to short the stock despite a 1250% increase in share price over the past five years [2]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2026, Nvidia reported revenue of $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of exceeding revenue and profit expectations [5]. - The data center business generated $41.1 billion, accounting for approximately 88% of total revenue, driven by accelerated investments in AI infrastructure from cloud giants and governments [5]. - Nvidia's gross margin reached 60.5%, significantly higher than competitors like AMD, which reported a gross margin of 43% [5]. - For Q3 2026, Nvidia's revenue guidance is set at $54 billion, indicating a 15% sequential growth even when excluding contributions from the Chinese market [8]. Market Opportunities - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, raised the forecast for the global GPU market from $2 trillion to $3-4 trillion by 2030, with Nvidia currently holding about 90% market share [12]. - The capital expenditure in the data center sector is projected to reach $6.7 trillion, suggesting ongoing large-scale investments that Nvidia can capitalize on [12]. - Upcoming product launches, including the Rubin series chips in 2026 and Rubin Ultra series in 2027, are expected to maintain Nvidia's competitive edge and pricing power [12]. Strategic Developments - Nvidia is expanding its business beyond GPUs into networking hardware and software, addressing the bandwidth and latency needs of AI applications with products like Spectrum-X and InfiniBand [13]. - The company is also developing co-packaged optics technology to integrate fiber links directly into GPUs and switches, aiming to reduce latency and improve efficiency [13]. - Transitioning towards a stable recurring revenue model through software and services is a key future opportunity for Nvidia [14]. Valuation Metrics - Nvidia's projected revenue for FY 2025 is $130.5 billion, with a net profit of $74.3 billion, reflecting a 114% year-over-year growth [14]. - The forward P/E ratio is approximately 32.7, with a PEG ratio of 0.67, indicating that Nvidia is undervalued compared to historical standards where a PEG below 1 is considered attractive [17]. - Comparatively, competitors like AMD, Broadcom, and Qualcomm have higher PEG ratios of 1.4, 1.7, and 2.5, respectively, suggesting Nvidia's current valuation is reasonable [17].