特斯拉：伟大的公司，不合理的价格

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's current valuation significantly exceeds what its fundamentals and growth prospects can support, leading analysts to rate its stock as a "strong sell" [1][19]. Group 1: Company Overview - Tesla is considered one of the most disruptive automakers and possibly the most disruptive company in the industrial technology sector, having redefined the possibilities of electric vehicles and built a global supply chain from scratch [3]. - Despite its high valuation, Tesla's core advantages, such as brand loyalty and innovative technology, are not disappearing, but much of its future growth potential is already priced in [4][13]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Tesla's revenue has doubled since 2020, with free cash flow increasing from $2.8 billion to approximately $5.6 billion over the past 12 months [7]. - Operating profit margin peaked at 16.8% in 2022 but has since compressed to just above 6% [9]. - The company's enterprise value-to-sales ratio (EV/Sales) exceeds 15 times, and its forward price-to-earnings ratio approaches 300 times, indicating a valuation based on high-growth tech standards rather than traditional automotive metrics [10][12]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like BYD, Hyundai, and traditional automakers narrowing the technological gap [14]. - Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) technology has faced delays and regulatory hurdles, limiting its short-term commercialization potential [15]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - Tesla's growth story increasingly relies on two pillars: autonomous driving and humanoid robots, both of which are still in developmental stages and not yet commercially viable [15][16]. - The energy generation and storage business, particularly the Megapack product, is emerging as a second growth engine, but currently accounts for less than 10% of total revenue [16][18]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The current valuation of Tesla presumes a high level of future success, with little margin for error, making it a less attractive investment for those seeking quality fundamentals and reasonable valuations [19]. - Analysts suggest that companies like Molina Healthcare (MOH), Crocs (CROX), and Sizzle (SEZL) present better risk-reward profiles in the current market environment [19].