BABA(US:BABA) 美股IPO·2025-10-13 10:19Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast to 460 billion yuan over the next three years, marking one of the most aggressive predictions on Wall Street. Analysts believe that the transformation of AI capital expenditure is reshaping Alibaba's growth expectations, with breakthroughs in AI cloud computing capabilities and international expansion potential providing new upward momentum for the stock price. It is expected that by the fiscal year 2028, international business will contribute one-quarter of Alibaba Cloud's external revenue [1][3]. Capital Expenditure and Revenue Transformation - Goldman Sachs has introduced an analysis framework for the conversion of AI capital expenditure to revenue, suggesting that Alibaba's development trajectory lags behind U.S. cloud service giants by about two years. This time lag aligns with the technological breakthroughs of ChatGPT (end of 2022) and DeepSeek (January 2025) [6]. - Alibaba's current data center capacity is estimated at 3-4 GW, with plans to expand to 20 GW by 2032, requiring an annual addition of approximately 2 GW capacity. This expansion plan will support significant capital investment over the next three years [6]. - Three scenarios for capital expenditure have been set: a baseline of 460 billion yuan, an optimistic scenario of 550 billion yuan, and a pessimistic scenario of 380 billion yuan, with conversion ratios varying accordingly [7]. International Expansion and Valuation - Alibaba Cloud's international expansion is a key factor in Goldman Sachs' valuation increase. The cloud has established 91 availability zones across 29 regions, with overseas nodes reaching 900. International business revenue is expected to grow from single digits to about 25% by the fiscal year 2028, with a high double-digit compound annual growth rate [8]. - Alibaba Cloud enjoys premium pricing in overseas markets, with its Qwen model priced significantly higher than domestic levels. The cloud is accelerating the construction of data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands, while upgrading existing facilities in Mexico and Japan [8]. Short-term Challenges and Market Competition - Despite the target price increase, Alibaba faces short-term challenges, particularly from its instant e-commerce business, which is expected to see a significant decline in EBITA for the September quarter. The competition with Meituan in the instant e-commerce sector is a critical variable [9]. - Alibaba's management is confident in the growth of commercial monetization rates (CMR) driven by advertising technology advancements and the instant e-commerce business. The penetration rate of merchants using site-wide advertising products has exceeded 30% [9]. - Goldman Sachs' revised bullish and bearish scenarios indicate a target price of up to 280 USD in an optimistic case, representing a 76% upside potential, while a pessimistic case suggests a target of 141 USD, indicating only an 11% downside risk [9].