Caitong Securities(SH:601108) 陈兴宏观研究·2025-10-13 11:20Core Viewpoint - China's export growth rate in September recorded an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year, despite a decline in the two-year average growth rate and a month-on-month growth rate below the median of the past five years [2][3] Export Analysis - The increase in export growth is primarily attributed to the low base effect from last year and improved cooperation with emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa, which has supported exports to these regions [3][7] - Exports to Latin America and Africa saw significant increases, with growth rates of 15.1% and 56.6% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 27% [7] - The contribution of quantity to export growth has slightly weakened, while price factors have shifted from being a drag to a positive contributor [5][10] Import Analysis - China's import growth rate in September was 7.4%, a significant increase of 6.1 percentage points from August, driven by rising demand for production materials and energy [12] - Imports from the EU increased by 9.5%, benefiting from deepening trade relations between China and Europe, while imports from the US decreased by 16.1% [12][15] - All categories of imports showed varying degrees of increase, with notable growth in industrial raw materials and energy products [15] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in September narrowed to $90.45 billion, but net exports continue to support the economy [17] - Future trade dynamics may be influenced by the expiration of the US-China tariff agreement, with potential concessions from both sides regarding tariffs on rare earths and soybeans [17]