特斯拉创纪录销量难改背后“隐忧”

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is considered to be significantly overvalued despite a recent surge in stock price and record delivery numbers, driven by a one-time demand spike due to expiring tax incentives [1][15]. Delivery Performance - In Q3 2024, Tesla achieved record vehicle deliveries close to 500,000 units, with energy deployment also reaching new highs [4]. - The delivery volume exceeded production by over 10%, indicating a rush from consumers to purchase vehicles before the tax incentive expiration, which is a temporary demand factor [5]. - Year-over-year production decreased by several percentage points, suggesting a contraction in the company's fundamentals [5]. Financial Performance - Tesla's financial performance remains weak relative to its valuation, with total automotive revenues showing a 16% year-over-year decline [8]. - Total revenues for Q3 2024 were $25.2 billion, down 12% year-over-year, while total gross profit also fell by 15% [8]. - The company's free cash flow yield is only 0.4%, with approximately 45% of the past 12 months' free cash flow generated in the latest quarter, raising concerns about future cash flow sustainability [8]. Market Position and Risks - Experts believe Tesla has reached a market ceiling, with no sales growth since 2023 and a declining market share, particularly in Europe [9]. - The performance of Tesla's other models, including the Cybertruck, remains weak, indicating a lack of growth outside its core offerings [5][9]. Autonomous Driving and Robotics - Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) technology has not met its 2018 targets and lags behind competitors like Waymo, which has achieved significant milestones in autonomous driving [11]. - The robotics business, while difficult to value, does not provide a substantial basis for Tesla's current market valuation, even if it were valued at double that of its competitor Figure AI [12]. Conclusion - The current market environment poses challenges for Tesla, with expectations of low single-digit growth and potential further business contraction, raising concerns about its high valuation [12][15].