BABA(US:BABA) 硬AI·2025-10-13 14:23Group 1 - Goldman Sachs significantly raised Alibaba's capital expenditure forecast for FY2026-2028 to 460 billion RMB, marking one of Wall Street's most aggressive predictions [2][3] - Analysts believe that the transformation of AI capital expenditure is reshaping Alibaba's growth expectations, with recent breakthroughs in AI cloud computing capabilities and international expansion potential providing new upward momentum for the stock price [3][6] - Alibaba's AI cloud revenue has achieved triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, reaching 20% of cloud revenue in the June quarter [3][6] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs introduced an analysis framework for the conversion of AI capital expenditure to revenue, estimating that Alibaba's current data center capacity is 3-4 GW, with plans to expand to 20 GW by 2032 [6][7] - Three scenarios for capital expenditure were set: a baseline of 460 billion RMB, an optimistic scenario of 550 billion RMB, and a pessimistic scenario of 380 billion RMB [7] Group 3 - Alibaba Cloud's international expansion is a key factor in Goldman Sachs' valuation increase, with expectations that international business revenue will grow from single digits to about 25% by FY2028, with a high double-digit CAGR [9] - Alibaba Cloud has established 91 availability zones across 29 regions, with 900 overseas nodes, and is accelerating data center construction in various countries [9] Group 4 - Despite raising the target price, Goldman Sachs warned of short-term challenges for Alibaba, predicting an 80% year-on-year decline in group EBITA for the September quarter due to investments in instant e-commerce [10][11] - The competition in the instant e-commerce sector, particularly with Meituan, is seen as a critical variable, with market share expected to stabilize at a 5:4:1 ratio among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com [10][11] - The revised bullish and bearish scenario analysis indicates a target price of up to 280 USD in an optimistic case, representing a 76% upside potential, while a pessimistic case suggests a target of 141 USD with only an 11% downside risk [11]