宁王不是“真龙”

Core Viewpoint - CATL's market performance and growth prospects are under scrutiny, as its main businesses, power batteries and energy storage batteries, have underperformed compared to the market, raising concerns about its future valuation and market position [5][6]. Group 1: Business Performance - CATL's revenue growth has significantly slowed down, with a projected revenue drop to 362 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, and a modest growth of 7.3% in the first half of 2025 [9][8]. - The company's power battery sales revenue has declined by 11.3% in 2024, despite the overall growth in China's new energy vehicle sales [11][12]. - Energy storage revenue has also seen a downward trend, with a 4.4% decrease in 2024 and a 1.5% decline in the first half of 2025, despite a significant increase in global demand for energy storage systems [14][13]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Dynamics - CATL's gross profit margin has been on a downward trajectory, dropping from 45% in 2016 to 17.2% in 2022, although it rebounded to 24.5% in 2024 due to falling lithium carbonate prices [17][19]. - The company has benefited from high subsidies and falling raw material costs, but its ability to maintain high margins is increasingly challenged as market dynamics shift [16][22]. - CATL's market share remains strong, but its revenue growth has not kept pace with the overall industry, indicating potential vulnerabilities in its business model [11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - CATL's focus on battery swapping technology is seen as a way to secure market share and create additional revenue streams, but the feasibility and long-term viability of this strategy are questioned [28][30]. - The company has made significant investments in battery swapping partnerships, yet the actual implementation and success of these initiatives remain limited [31][32]. - The reliance on battery swapping may not be sustainable outside specific sectors, such as logistics and ride-hailing, raising concerns about the effectiveness of this strategy in the broader market [35][36].