大幅上调英伟达目标价，这家大行的理由：台积电产能分配远超预期，OpenAI“闭环交易”

Core Viewpoint - HSBC upgraded Nvidia's rating to "Buy" and raised the target price from $200 to $320, indicating a potential upside of 78% based on two key signals [3][4]. Group 1: Capacity Allocation and Revenue Projections - Nvidia's allocation for TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is expected to increase from 480,000 wafers to 700,000 wafers in fiscal year 2027, representing a year-on-year growth of 140% [4][5]. - The adjustment in capacity allocation is projected to drive Nvidia's data center revenue to $351 billion for fiscal year 2027, which is 36% higher than the market consensus of $258 billion [3][4]. - In an optimistic scenario, if capacity reaches 800,000 wafers, data center revenue could potentially reach $390 billion, corresponding to an earnings per share of $9.68, which is 11% higher than the baseline scenario [5]. Group 2: AI Market and Revenue Opportunities - The report highlights a significant "closed-loop transaction" involving Nvidia's investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which has signed a $300 billion five-year partnership with Oracle to deploy Stargate capacity, with Oracle purchasing GPUs from Nvidia [6][7]. - The estimated revenue opportunity from the Stargate and OpenAI commitments is projected to be between $251 billion and $400 billion, nearly double Nvidia's current fiscal year 2027 forecast [6][7]. - Different chip generations have varying power consumption, leading to different revenue projections based on chip type, with potential revenues ranging from $2.51 billion to $400 billion depending on the chip used [7].