Nvidia(US:NVDA) 是说芯语·2025-10-17 03:17Core Viewpoint - The drastic decline of NVIDIA's market share in China from 95% to 0% is primarily due to the U.S. government's export control policies impacting the AI chip market [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of U.S. Export Controls - NVIDIA's CEO highlighted that the core reason for the market share drop is the ongoing escalation of AI chip export restrictions by the U.S. government [3]. - Since October 2022, NVIDIA has introduced compliant chips like A800, H800, and H20 to adapt to regulatory changes, but new measures in April 2023 forced the company to halt H20 sales, resulting in approximately $4.5 billion in inventory losses and $8 billion in potential revenue losses [3]. - Even after receiving export licenses for H20 in August, NVIDIA must pay a 15% sales revenue share to the U.S. government, and subsequent security reviews and antitrust investigations have nearly halted H20 sales in China [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - China is projected to become a significant player in the AI market, with an expected market size of $50 billion by 2026 and housing about 50% of the global AI developers [3]. - NVIDIA has adjusted its expectations for the Chinese market to zero while still seeking export licenses for customized chips based on Blackwell GPU [4]. - Despite the loss of market share in China, NVIDIA maintains a strong global position, with Morgan Stanley predicting it will hold 77% of the global AI processor wafer market by 2025 [4]. Group 3: Chinese Market Development - The development of domestic alternatives in China is becoming clearer, with a notable 28% progress in creating "usable, controllable, and mass-producible" technologies [6]. - NVIDIA's CEO acknowledged that China can still develop impressive technologies like DeepSeek despite restrictions, indicating a vibrant ecosystem that the U.S. should not ignore [6].