Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股IPO·2025-10-17 07:07Core Viewpoint - The importance of fundamentals for Tesla investors has diminished, with the focus shifting to narratives around autonomous driving and AI, although fundamentals will eventually regain significance [1][4]. Group 1: Tesla's Current Situation - Tesla is navigating two narratives: "AI-driven future growth" and "realities of slowing automotive business," where the former boosts stock prices while the latter pressures profitability [2][5]. - The recent surge in Tesla's stock is attributed to narratives rather than actual financial performance, driven by Elon Musk's new compensation plan and significant stock purchases [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Barclays estimates Tesla's Q3 earnings per share (EPS) at approximately $0.60, above market expectations of $0.52, but this has already been priced into the stock [7]. - Q3 deliveries reached 497,000 units, marking a peak, with Q4 deliveries expected to drop to 425,000 units, leading to an annual delivery decline of 8% [7]. - New vehicle models lack innovation, primarily being simplified versions of existing models, which may cannibalize sales of higher-end models [7]. - Profitability is projected to decline, with EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 at $1.61 and $1.48, respectively, both below market expectations [7]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - Tesla's market capitalization stands at $1.45 trillion, with an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 125.8, significantly higher than traditional automakers, reflecting optimism about autonomous driving and AI rather than current fundamentals [8]. - Barclays raised Tesla's target price by 27% to $350, primarily reflecting adjustments based on AI/autonomous driving opportunities rather than improvements in fundamentals, indicating a potential 20% downside from the current stock price of $435 [8].