亚马逊的僵局：等待下一个催化剂

Core Viewpoint - Amazon should be a core holding in investment portfolios, and its performance should not be judged solely on short-term fluctuations [1][5][12] Market Conditions - The downgrade to "hold" was primarily due to a lack of short-term catalysts and insufficient momentum since July, with the stock showing little change in valuation [5][7] - The macro environment has shifted, with a 25 basis point reduction in U.S. interest rates, which has improved market expectations for company valuations, particularly in the tech sector [7] - Despite some positive earnings reports in Q2, uncertainties remain, particularly regarding supply chain disruptions and geopolitical issues [7][11] Business Performance - AWS growth improved slightly to 17.5% in Q2, but remains below the 20%-25% target needed for valuation re-rating [8] - Advertising business grew by 19%, indicating strong performance outside of AWS, but this alone cannot change the overall investment logic [8][11] - Other business segments, including healthcare and the Kuiper satellite project, have not yet shown significant growth or profitability [9][11] Investment Strategy - Amazon's stock is expected to continue fluctuating until significant catalysts emerge, with a tendency to oscillate around key price levels [11] - The company's long-term investment logic is supported by its scale in e-commerce, data resources, and ecosystem effects, despite current market conditions [11] - The valuation remains reasonable compared to other tech giants, and historical trends suggest that pullbacks are often good buying opportunities [11] Earnings Outlook - Amazon's earnings have consistently exceeded expectations, with projections for Q3 2025 indicating a slight increase in EPS to around $1.6 and revenue of approximately $180 billion [16] - Key metrics to watch include AWS growth, which is expected to rise to 18%, and advertising growth, anticipated to exceed 20% [16]