Zijin Mining(SH:601899) 光大证券研究·2025-10-20 23:07Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 254.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 37.86 billion yuan, up 55.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 14.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 57% increase year-on-year and an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The non-recurring net profit for the first three quarters was 34.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7% [4] Production Volume - In Q3 2025, gold production increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter, while copper production decreased by 6% [5] - For the first three quarters, gold production totaled 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year, with Q3 production at 24 tons [5] - Copper production for the first three quarters was 830,000 tons, a 5% year-on-year increase, with Q3 production at 260,000 tons, impacted by flooding at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [5] Price Trends - In Q3 2025, the average spot price of gold was $3,492 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, while the average copper price was $9,864 per ton, a 6% year-on-year increase [6] - Gold business gross profit accounted for 46% of the company's total gross profit in Q3 2025, up from 30% in 2024 [6] Cost Analysis - The sales cost of gold concentrate in Q3 2025 was 195 yuan per gram, an increase of 10 yuan per gram quarter-on-quarter [7] - The cost of copper concentrate was 22,128 yuan per ton, up 952 yuan per ton year-on-year, with electrolytic copper costing 36,544 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,261 yuan per ton year-on-year [7] - Cost increases were attributed to declining ore grades, increased transportation distances, and transitional costs from newly acquired companies [7] Industry Outlook - The weakening of the US dollar's credit and the onset of a US interest rate cut cycle are expected to support rising gold and copper prices [8] - For gold, central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves amid global uncertainties, with ETFs also expected to increase their gold holdings [9] - For copper, while short-term pressures may exist, supply tightness is anticipated due to Freeport's planned production cuts, with downstream demand expected to recover in Q4 2025 [9]