研报 | 2025年第四季度的节庆消费需求或趋保守,MLCC供给两极化加剧

Core Insights - The global MLCC market is facing increased uncertainty in Q4 2025, impacting consumer and investment confidence, which may pressure year-end consumer spending [2] - Some smartphone brands have reduced Q4 orders by 12-15%, while laptop demand has decreased by 8-10% [2] - AI Server orders continue to grow but are concentrated among a few ODM manufacturers like Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron [2] - The iPhone 17 series has seen unexpectedly strong shipments, leading to a 5% month-on-month increase in orders for MLCC suppliers like Murata and Taiyo Yuden, but this is insufficient to offset the overall market demand decline [2][3] - The MLCC market is polarized, with major players benefiting from AI Server and Apple product demand, while other manufacturers face weak demand in mobile and laptop sectors [3] Market Dynamics - Murata's MLCC shipments exceeded 140 billion units in September, setting a historical record [3] - The B/B Ratio (book-to-bill ratio) has declined significantly for other manufacturers due to cautious inventory management amid weak demand [3] - Suppliers are adjusting production capacity, enhancing automation, and sourcing local materials to reduce costs in response to market challenges [3] - The overall MLCC market is supported by AI infrastructure, but consumer electronics demand remains weak, exacerbated by global uncertainties [3] - It is anticipated that only high-end MLCC revenues will maintain steady growth, while the outlook for consumer-grade MLCC orders is bleak [3]