高盛：“我们正处于iPhone超级周期吗？”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates strong demand for the new iPhone series, supported by evidence such as longer delivery times, higher production plans, and positive feedback from carriers. However, whether an "iPhone super cycle" is underway remains to be seen [1][5][9]. Group 1: Demand Indicators - The delivery time for the iPhone 17 series has increased, further confirming signs of strong demand [2]. - Counterpoint Research reported that sales of the iPhone 17 series in the first 10 days post-launch in the U.S. and China grew by 14% compared to the iPhone 16 series during the same period [4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that demand for the iPhone 17 series may exceed that of the iPhone 16, citing longer delivery cycles, increased production plans, and positive carrier feedback as supporting evidence [5][6]. Group 2: Delivery Times and Regional Insights - The average delivery cycle for the iPhone 17 series globally is 24 days, compared to 20 days for the iPhone 16 series during the same period last year [6]. - In various regions, including the U.S., U.K., India, Japan, and Hong Kong, the delivery times for the iPhone 17 have surpassed those of the iPhone 16 series [7]. - In mainland China, while there are delays for the iPhone Air model, other iPhone 17 models maintain delivery times that exceed last year's levels [7]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Ahead of Apple's earnings report on October 30, Goldman Sachs' Michael Ng anticipates that Apple's revenue and earnings per share for Q4 FY2025 will exceed expectations, driven by a 10% year-over-year increase in iPhone sales and a 12% increase in Mac sales [7]. - The projected gross margin is 46.5%, reflecting approximately $1.1 billion in tariff costs, with average earnings per share expectations raised by about 3% for FY2025 to FY2027 due to sustained strong iPhone demand [7]. Group 4: Market Impact - The strong momentum of the iPhone 17 series has positively affected the stock prices of Apple's Asian supply chain partners, with companies like Luxshare Precision, LG Display, and LG Innotek seeing stock price increases exceeding 20% [8]. - Apple's recovery is also boosting the Taiwanese stock market, as major players like TSMC and Hon Hai have significant revenue reliance on Apple, contributing to a 47% weight in the Taiwan Weighted Index [8].