Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-10-22 10:48Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' report indicates that the investment logic in the Chinese stock market is undergoing a fundamental shift, entering a more sustainable and less volatile "slow bull" phase [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a potential 30% increase in key Chinese stock indices, including A-shares and H-shares, by the end of 2027, driven by earnings growth and valuation recovery [2] - The anticipated rise will be supported by an average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% in earnings and a 5-10% valuation re-rating, marking a transition from a "hope" phase to a "growth" phase [3][7] Group 2: Supporting Pillars - Pillar 1: Policy Support The overall policy environment in China has shifted to a more market-friendly stance, reducing left-tail risks and enhancing shareholder returns through governance reforms [8][9][10] - Pillar 2: Growth Drivers Despite a slowdown in macroeconomic growth, three new drivers are expected to push earnings per share (EPS) growth to a "low double-digit" level (around 12%): - AI contributions are projected to add 3 percentage points annually due to increased capital expenditure by tech giants [13] - Anti-involution policies are expected to normalize profit margins, contributing 1.5 percentage points to EPS growth [14] - The trend of Chinese companies seeking global revenue sources is also expected to add 1.5 percentage points to EPS growth [15] - Pillar 3: Valuation Recovery Current valuations are deemed reasonable, with the MSCI China Index trading at a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 12.9x, indicating significant upside potential not fully reflected in prices [16][17] - Pillar 4: Capital Inflows A significant reallocation of assets from real estate and fixed income to equities is anticipated, with over 6 trillion RMB potentially moving into the stock market in the coming years [18] Group 3: Market Behavior - The report suggests a shift from a "sell on rallies" strategy to a "buy on dips" approach, reflecting a more strategic allocation mindset [5] - Since the low point at the end of 2022, the MSCI China Index has rebounded by 81%, recovering about half of the previous market value loss, although it has experienced four major pullbacks averaging 22% [6]