TSMC(US:TSM) 36氪·2025-10-22 13:36Core Viewpoint - The market has underestimated the long-term risks faced by TSMC, particularly from Intel's resurgence and potential policy changes in the U.S. that could impact TSMC's operations and competitive position [4][6][11]. Financial Performance - TSMC's stock price has surged over 50% in 2025, with a market capitalization exceeding $1.5 trillion, driven by strong earnings growth [5]. - In Q3 2025, TSMC reported a revenue growth of 30.3% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.8 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 45.7% [6]. Competitive Landscape - Intel is set to launch its 18A process in H2 2025, which will directly compete with TSMC's 2nm process, potentially altering the competitive dynamics in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space [7][8]. - TSMC currently holds a significant advantage with 74% of its revenue coming from advanced processes below 7nm, while Intel's advanced processes are still maturing [7]. U.S. Policy Risks - The U.S. government is pushing for domestic chip production, which could impose a 1:1 ratio requirement for chips produced in the U.S. versus imported chips, posing a compliance risk for TSMC [10][11]. - TSMC has committed to significant investments in the U.S., including $650 billion for three fabs and an additional $1 trillion for further facilities, to mitigate potential policy impacts [11]. Market Dynamics - TSMC's revenue from North America accounted for 70% of its total revenue in 2024, indicating a heavy reliance on the U.S. market, which could be affected by new production policies [12]. - The competitive landscape is further complicated by Intel's collaborations with major chip designers like Nvidia, Apple, and AMD, which could challenge TSMC's market share [16]. Pricing Pressure - Samsung has initiated a price war in the chip foundry market, reducing its 2nm wafer prices to $20,000, which is 33% lower than TSMC's expected price of $30,000, potentially attracting cost-sensitive customers [17][18]. - TSMC plans to adjust prices for its advanced processes, but the competitive pricing from Samsung could pressure TSMC's margins in the long run [17]. Market Reaction - Despite facing multiple headwinds, TSMC's stock has reached historical highs, attributed to strong earnings growth and a favorable market environment driven by AI demand [20][21]. - TSMC's price-to-earnings ratio has increased significantly, reflecting market confidence in its short-term performance, but raises concerns about long-term valuation sustainability [23].