金价暴跌之际，高盛“坚定看涨”：维持明年底4900美元目标价，甚至有“上行风险”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices, reiterating a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting potential "upside risk" due to structural demand from central banks and high-net-worth individuals [2][9][12] Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in gold is attributed to speculative position liquidations and spillover effects from the silver market, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals [2][5] - Despite a drop of over 8% in gold prices this week, Goldman Sachs remains confident in its bullish stance [3] Group 2: Structural Demand Support - Structural demand, characterized as "sticky," continues to support long-term bullish trends in gold prices, with strong buying observed from September to October [5][11] - Central banks are expected to show seasonal buying increases in September and October, following a quiet summer [6] Group 3: Strategic Allocations - A model by Goldman Sachs indicates that a firm buying of 100 tons (including central banks, ETFs, and net managed funds) can lead to a price increase of 1.5%-2% [8] - In August, these holders increased their positions by 154 tons, aligning with the price increase and validating the model's effectiveness [8] Group 4: Institutional Interest and Future Drivers - The rising interest from institutional investors presents an upside risk to gold prices, reinforcing Goldman Sachs' optimistic forecast [9][10] - Anticipated inflows into gold ETFs are driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and diversification needs [11] - Feedback from clients indicates that high-net-worth individuals may have increased physical gold purchases in September and October, contributing to long-term demand [11][12] Group 5: Long-term Investment Trends - Research shows that as of 2020, about 70% of U.S. institutional investors had no exposure to gold, with those that do averaging less than 2% allocation [13] - The lengthy approval cycles for these institutions suggest that demand will continue to be released over the coming quarters, potentially driving prices higher [13] - In the context of increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty, reallocating even a modest portion of large institutional portfolios from bonds and equities to the relatively smaller gold market could significantly boost gold prices [13]