苹果第四季度业绩前瞻：盈利质量与利润率韧性超预期

Core Viewpoint - Apple's performance has outpaced the S&P 500 index by approximately 7 percentage points since the report in April, driven by a strong Q3 performance with a 10% year-over-year revenue growth and a 12% increase in earnings per share, despite incurring around $900 million in tariffs, resulting in a gross margin of about 46.5% [1][3][13] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 FY2025 earnings are expected to demonstrate the company's ability to maintain profit margins despite higher tariff costs, with a gross margin guidance of 46%-47% covering approximately $1.1 billion in tariff costs [3][4] - The services segment is nearing one-third of total revenue, with a gross margin close to 75%, enhancing overall profitability [3][4] - The growth rate for the services business is projected to be around 13% for the September quarter, consistent with the June quarter [3] Group 2: Product Performance - Early sales data for the iPhone 17 indicates performance at least on par with the previous year, with a stable proportion of high-end models, supporting the average selling price and maintaining product business gross margin around 35% [4] - The first quarter of FY2026 is expected to see revenue growth in the mid-single digits or higher, with gross margins again in the 46%-47% range [4] - User upgrade intentions are rising, supporting a healthier replacement cycle for the December quarter, although wearables and iPad sales may remain weak [4] Group 3: Key Indicators - Focus on profitability quality, including the services segment's contribution, overall gross margin, and product business gross margin, is crucial for assessing the impact of tariff costs and product structure on profitability [7] - Monitoring the relationship between tariff expenses and shipment volumes will provide insights into Apple's cost transfer capabilities and supply chain efficiency [7] - Progress in supply chain diversification, particularly the share of iPhones assembled in India and the contribution of Vietnam in Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch production, is key to understanding tariff risk predictability [7] Group 4: Operational Management - The company aims to control total operating expenses within the range of $15.6 billion to $15.8 billion, ensuring that expense growth remains below revenue growth while increasing investments in artificial intelligence [8]