JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 华尔街见闻·2025-10-24 10:50Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's global commodity research team maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, despite recent price corrections [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent correction in gold prices is viewed as healthy and necessary after a significant increase of over 30% since mid-August [3]. - In the eight weeks leading up to October, global gold ETFs added 268 tons, with a nominal inflow of $33 billion, indicating strong demand from Western investors [3][5]. - The price of gold has retreated to a key support level between $3,944 and $4,000, with expectations of renewed buying interest from central banks and consumers as the market stabilizes [3][5]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - The model predicts that by 2026, total investor demand, including ETFs, futures, and central bank purchases, will average 566 tons per quarter [5]. - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 760 tons of gold annually over the next two years, remaining significantly above pre-2022 levels [6]. - Gold ETFs are projected to attract approximately 360 tons of inflows by the end of 2026, driven by concerns over inflation and U.S. debt sustainability [6]. Group 3: Silver Market Outlook - The report also expresses optimism for silver, forecasting a price of $56 per ounce by the end of 2026, as the gold-silver ratio is expected to return to the range of 85-90 [7]. Group 4: Short-term Risks - The quantitative and derivatives strategy team at Morgan Stanley warns of short-term risks, citing a record imbalance in gold ETF options and drawing parallels to the market conditions before a significant correction in 2006 [2][8]. - The current market sentiment is described as overheated, with momentum indicators and implied volatility at extreme levels [9]. Group 5: Potential Risks to Outlook - The primary risk to the bullish outlook is a sharp slowdown in central bank purchases, which have been crucial for supporting gold prices [13]. - Jewelry demand has been negatively impacted by rising gold prices, with a 14% decline in weight terms despite a 21% increase in value terms in Q2 [14]. - High gold prices may lead to increased recycling of old jewelry, potentially reducing net jewelry demand significantly [14][15].