晚点独家丨特斯拉人形机器人再延期，因为双手只能用六星期

Core Insights - The article discusses Tesla's challenges and progress in developing the third-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, while also highlighting Elon Musk's ambitious production targets despite delays in the design and engineering processes [2][4][15]. R&D Progress and Challenges - Tesla's plan to finalize the design of the third-generation Optimus robot has been delayed until Q1 of next year, with initial expectations set for a demonstration by the end of this year [2][4]. - The development of the robot's dexterous hand has faced significant engineering challenges, including a short lifespan of only six weeks during sorting tasks and high replacement costs, estimated at nearly $100,000 annually for parts alone [4][6]. - Despite these setbacks, Tesla has resumed parts procurement and is producing Optimus units without hands, achieving a weekly production capacity of over 200 units [5][15]. Production Goals and Supplier Relations - Tesla aims to ramp up production to 1 million units annually by the end of next year, with suppliers being asked to increase their output significantly [15][16]. - Suppliers express skepticism about Tesla's ambitious timelines, yet they remain eager to collaborate due to the potential for substantial orders and technological support from Tesla [16][15]. - The integration of advanced components, such as increasing the number of actuators in the dexterous hand from 17 to 22, is part of Tesla's strategy to enhance the robot's capabilities [5][6]. Technical Specifications and Improvements - The third-generation Optimus is designed to be lighter and more efficient, with a target weight reduction of 10 kg from the previous model, although only 7.3 kg has been achieved so far [8][9]. - Engineering challenges persist, including the durability of joints and actuators, which are not meeting expectations for factory work efficiency [14][9]. - The robot's performance is still below Tesla's design goals, with current capabilities only achieving 20%-30% of human speed in factory settings [14][9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Despite the ongoing challenges, Tesla's production plans for Optimus are significantly higher than those of competitors, with expectations to produce around 50,000 units next year [16][15]. - There is a growing interest from major automotive parts companies in collaborating with Tesla, indicating a strong market potential for the Optimus robot, even before its commercial viability is proven [16][15].