KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 雪球·2025-10-26 01:47Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that historical performance is not a reliable indicator for future returns, particularly for Kweichow Moutai, which is expected to maintain high ROE due to qualitative factors [3]. Financial Projections - Kweichow Moutai is projected to earn approximately 95 billion yuan in 2025, with 75% of profits allocated for dividends, and an additional 6 billion yuan for share buybacks, resulting in a total of 77.25 billion yuan for shareholder returns [5]. - The company is expected to retain around 18 billion yuan annually, assuming a conservative profit growth rate of 0% and maintaining the buyback program [5][6]. ROE Analysis - With a net asset value of 300 billion yuan and a net profit of 95 billion yuan, the current ROE is calculated at 31.67%. By 2035, if profits remain stable, the ROE is projected to decrease to 19.79% due to increased net assets [6]. - To maintain the current ROE of 31.67%, Kweichow Moutai would need a profit growth rate of at least 6.01%. If profit growth is below this threshold, the company could increase dividends and buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [7]. Dividend Strategy - The article suggests that Kweichow Moutai may eventually implement a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100%, combining dividends and buybacks that surpass net profits, potentially within five years [9]. - The company has the capacity to distribute significant returns to shareholders without requiring substantial capital investments, as it primarily needs funds for capacity expansion [8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The article argues that as long as consumer incomes continue to rise, Kweichow Moutai's profits are unlikely to decline, allowing for high dividends while maintaining a strong ROE [9]. - The investment thesis is based on the belief that holding Kweichow Moutai stock for the long term will yield returns closely aligned with the company's ROE performance [10].