特斯拉的 “希望泡沫”

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's stock has approached its yearly high, but the company's progress in the robotaxi sector remains limited, leading to disappointing third-quarter results. The electric vehicle business may no longer be the future core, and despite a stock rebound driven by autonomous driving hype, investor sentiment remains bearish [1]. Quarterly Performance Analysis - Tesla's overall performance this quarter was robust, driven by the upgraded Model Y and a surge in sales before the expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit [3]. - The company produced 447,000 electric vehicles, a 5% year-over-year decline, while deliveries reached 497,000, a 7% increase, primarily due to a buying rush before the tax credit expiration [4]. - Total revenue exceeded $28 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, with strong growth in energy and service sales, although automotive revenue only grew by 6% despite delivery performance [4]. Robotaxi Service Development - Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June, but it remains in a "supervised" mode. A similar service was introduced in the San Francisco Bay Area, resembling a ride-hailing service rather than true autonomous driving [6]. - Elon Musk previously promised that half of the U.S. population would have access to robotaxi services by 2025, but this timeline has been pushed back, indicating a delay in achieving "unsupervised" operations [6]. - By the end of the year, Tesla expects to operate robotaxi services in 8 to 10 metropolitan areas, depending on regulatory approvals [6]. Competitive Landscape - Waymo's robotaxi business is already substantial, with weekly orders nearing 400,000 and a projected monthly order volume of 1.5 to 2 million, potentially increasing to 5 million by year-end [7]. - The autonomous taxi industry's potential market could exceed $1 trillion if costs per mile are significantly reduced, as predicted by ARK Invest [7]. Valuation Concerns - Tesla's current valuation is based on a 2026 revenue target of $110 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of 13 and an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.30, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 189 [9]. - Despite analysts predicting a 15% revenue growth, earnings expectations for upcoming quarters are being continuously revised downward, making it difficult for the stock price to maintain an upward trend [9]. - The automotive business may not generate sufficient profits to support Tesla's $1.5 trillion market cap, necessitating significant success in the robotaxi sector to drive stock price increases [10]. Future Outlook - Tesla's adjusted EBITDA for the year is expected to be $15 billion, suggesting a market value of around $300 billion based on a 20x EV/EBITDA multiple, indicating substantial downside risk for the current stock price [10]. - The company must rely on the growth of its robotaxi business to sustain its current stock price, as traditional automakers maintain much lower EV/EBITDA multiples [10]. - The path to substantial revenue from the robotaxi business is long, with the Cybercab model not expected to begin production until Q2 2026, and regulatory delays likely [11]. Conclusion - Despite Tesla's stock nearing historical highs, the company faces persistent challenges, particularly in the slow progress of its robotaxi business, which remains in a "supervised" phase. The need for significant success in this area to justify higher stock prices appears increasingly difficult given the competitive landscape and ongoing delays [14].