Qualcomm(US:QCOM) 美股研究社·2025-10-28 10:24Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm officially enters the AI accelerator chip market with a product roadmap extending to 2028, focusing on high-performance and cost-effective AI inference operations [1][4]. Group 1: Product Roadmap - Qualcomm plans to launch the AI200 chip in 2026, featuring 768GB LPDDR memory aimed at high-performance AI inference [1]. - The AI250 chip is scheduled for release in 2027, utilizing near-memory computing architecture to enhance effective bandwidth by 10 times while reducing power consumption [1]. - Collaboration with Saudi Arabian AI company Humain has been established to deploy Qualcomm's accelerator chips in a 200 MW computing facility starting in 2026 [1]. Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Qualcomm differentiates itself by focusing on "energy efficiency" and "total cost of ownership (TCO)" optimization in the AI inference segment, avoiding direct competition with Nvidia and AMD, which dominate the AI training cluster market [4]. - The company has a long-standing accumulation of technology in custom CPU, NPU, GPU, and low-power subsystems, enabling high-performance, low-power AI inference directly at the device level, crucial for edge computing scenarios [4][5]. - Qualcomm aims to create a complete ecosystem by embedding accelerator chips into modular racks and integrating AI software stacks and SDKs, targeting enterprises reluctant to pay high prices for Nvidia GPUs [5]. Group 3: Market Potential and Financial Outlook - Qualcomm's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 is slightly over $10 billion, with an estimated annual revenue of around $43 billion [5]. - AMD's CEO predicts the AI chip market will reach $500 billion by 2028, suggesting that even a 2%-3% market share for Qualcomm could yield an additional $10-15 billion in revenue in the coming years, based on conservative estimates [5]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Qualcomm faces high market barriers due to the established dominance of Nvidia and AMD, which have strong ecosystem lock-in advantages [6]. - The timing of Qualcomm's entry into the market may be late, requiring significant investment in R&D and deployment while potentially facing peak chip pricing, limiting profit margins [6]. - The complexity and competitiveness of the AI chip market present uncertainties in business expansion, making it challenging to replicate past successes in other sectors [6]. Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - Following the announcement, Qualcomm's stock price increased by over 10%, although it remains below historical highs [7]. - In terms of valuation, Qualcomm is cheaper than AMD and Nvidia based on P/E ratios, but its forward PEG ratio does not favorably compare due to AMD and Nvidia's higher earnings growth rates [8]. - If the AI accelerator chip business significantly boosts earnings growth, Qualcomm's P/E ratio could approach 20, indicating potential for valuation re-rating [8].