YTCO(SH:600066) 汽车琰究·2025-10-29 15:34Event Overview - The company disclosed its Q3 2025 report, showing revenue of 26.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.292 billion yuan, up 35.38% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue reached 10.237 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.40% [2] - The net profit for Q3 was 1.357 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 78.98% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 14.94% [2] Analysis and Judgment - Q3 performance met expectations, indicating resilience for the full year. Revenue for Q3 was 10.237 billion yuan, driven by the sale of 12,235 buses, which increased by 13.38% year-on-year [2] - Profitability improved with a gross margin of 23.98%, up 11.66 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in accounting standards. The net profit margin was 13.59%, reflecting a product structure optimization [2] - Expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance were 3.32%, 1.66%, 4.23%, and 0.15%, respectively, with significant changes attributed to accounting standard adjustments [2] Market Expansion - The company is a leader in the bus export market, with Q3 exports of 15,623 buses, a year-on-year increase of 58.21%. The company held a 29.41% market share in the export sector [3] - Exports of large and medium-sized new energy buses reached 1,268 units in Q3, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 296.25% [3] - The company has established bulk sales in nearly 60 countries, with total bus exports exceeding 110,000 units, including over 8,000 new energy buses [3] Domestic Demand Drivers - The implementation of a vehicle replacement policy for public transport is expected to boost domestic demand for buses. The policy provides an average subsidy of 80,000 yuan for new energy city buses and 42,000 yuan for battery replacements [4] - Domestic bus sales in Q3 reached 6,117 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.49%, indicating a positive impact from the new policy [4] Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a tradition of dividends, with a proposed dividend of 1.0 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 3.32 billion yuan. Assuming the same dividend in 2025, the corresponding dividend yield is 4.74% [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.252 billion yuan, 48.550 billion yuan, and 55.886 billion yuan, with net profits of 4.546 billion yuan, 5.300 billion yuan, and 5.986 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 2.05 yuan, 2.39 yuan, and 2.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [6]