Caitong Securities(SH:601108) 陈兴宏观研究·2025-11-01 08:35Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points. Major global stock markets saw gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 2.2% respectively. In the commodity market, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 2% and 1.5%, while gold prices dropped by 2.7%. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.8% [2][3]. Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points during the October meeting, with plans to end balance sheet reduction by December. There were internal disagreements, with two members opposing the rate cut. Fed Chair Powell indicated that further rate cuts are not guaranteed, citing concerns over missing key economic data due to the government shutdown and worries about inflation stabilization. The European Central Bank maintained its interest rates, stating that inflation remains close to the 2% target [4][5][6]. US Economic Dynamics - The US government shutdown continues, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, leading to estimated economic losses of $7 billion to $14 billion. There are hopes among some Republicans for former President Trump to intervene. Meanwhile, the US and China have extended a truce in their trade war, with the US canceling a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and suspending other tariffs for a year. Additionally, a trade agreement was reached between the US and South Korea [9][10]. Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - The Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3, but overall performance remains weak due to sluggish consumption and industrial capacity issues. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is at 6.3%, with youth unemployment rising. The US and Japan announced a $550 billion investment plan focusing on energy, AI, and critical minerals. Tokyo's core CPI rose to 2.8%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target due to rising utility prices. Israel has resumed airstrikes on Gaza in response to attacks from Hamas [16][17][18].