三季报，茅台失速！

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 performance shows a significant slowdown in growth, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the Chinese liquor industry amid a deep adjustment period [3][4][12]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 39.064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.56%, and a net profit of 19.224 billion yuan, growing by 0.48%, marking the lowest growth rates in recent years [3][4]. - For the first nine months of 2025, total revenue reached 130.904 billion yuan, up 6.32%, and net profit was 64.626 billion yuan, up 6.25% [3][4]. Product Performance - Moutai's core product, Moutai liquor, maintained stable growth with revenue of 110.514 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%, while series liquor revenue fell to 17.884 billion yuan, down 7.8% [5]. - In Q3, series liquor revenue plummeted to 4.12 billion yuan, a staggering decline of 34% year-on-year, indicating that the strategy to expand series liquor has not met expectations [5][12]. Pricing and Market Demand - The wholesale price of Moutai liquor has dropped below 1,700 yuan, with the original version at 1,690 yuan and the bulk version at 1,660 yuan, reflecting a significant decline from 2,170 yuan prior to the "drinking ban" [6][7]. - The price drop indicates weak market demand, as the price has decreased by 480 yuan over five months [6][7]. Industry Challenges - The "drinking ban" has severely impacted high-end consumption scenarios, leading to a sharp decline in demand from existing consumer groups while new consumer demand is still developing [7][12]. - The increase in accounts receivable from 2.82 billion yuan to 5.21 billion yuan suggests that Moutai is easing payment terms for distributors to alleviate inventory pressure [9][10]. Strategic Adjustments - Moutai is focusing on enhancing direct sales channels, with direct sales revenue reaching 55.555 billion yuan, accounting for 42.3% of total revenue, and utilizing digital platforms like "i Moutai" [9][10]. - The company is also adjusting its policies towards distributors, allowing longer payment terms for series liquor products, which reflects the need to address the significant drop in series liquor revenue [10][12]. Leadership and Future Outlook - The new chairman, Chen Hua, faces the challenge of stabilizing performance and achieving the annual growth target of approximately 9% amid a tough market environment [11][12]. - Moutai's ability to navigate the current industry downturn and maintain its brand value while expanding market share will be critical as the year-end sales season approaches [12][13].