大摩：刚刚，亚马逊的“AI转折点”出现了？

Core Insights - Amazon's AWS has launched Project Rainier, a significant AI infrastructure milestone, now operational and supporting the training of Anthropic's Claude model [3][4][6] - The system features nearly 500,000 Trainium 2 chips, expected to double to 1 million by year-end, making it one of the largest AI training computers globally [4][5][6] - Morgan Stanley forecasts AWS revenue growth rates of 23% and 25% over the next two years, with potential incremental revenue of up to $6 billion from Anthropic by 2026 [6][11][15] Infrastructure Expansion - Project Rainier marks the beginning of AWS's large-scale AI capacity expansion [8] - The system connects thousands of super servers via NeuronLink technology to minimize communication delays and enhance overall computing efficiency [9] - AWS plans to increase its capacity by an additional 1GW by year-end and aims to double its GW capacity by 2027 [9] Chip Development Strategy - Amazon's AI strategy focuses on its proprietary chip systems, Trainium for AI training and Inferentia for inference, forming a "dual engine" for AI computing [9][10] - The Trainium series has become a multi-billion dollar core business, with a quarterly growth rate of 150% [10] - The upcoming Trainium 3 chip is expected to be unveiled at the re:Invent conference, with broader market applications anticipated by 2026 [10] Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley has upgraded Amazon's rating, citing AWS entering an "AI growth acceleration cycle" [11][13] - Key growth drivers include rapid capacity expansion, structural growth cycles, a surge in AI orders, and accelerated innovation [13][15] - AWS is currently experiencing a "capacity-constrained" state, with new business signed in October exceeding the total for the entire third quarter, amounting to approximately $18 billion [14][15] Future Outlook - Analysts believe that despite significant investments in computing capacity, the demand will absorb the new capacity immediately, presenting unprecedented opportunities for AWS customers [18]