日媒：台积电的最大风险

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of semiconductors, highlighting Taiwan's critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain, particularly through TSMC's dominance in chip manufacturing [2][3]. Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Dynamics - A semiconductor world war is emerging among Taiwan, South Korea, the US, Japan, and mainland China, with TSMC's management transition raising concerns about its responsiveness to smaller client demands, potentially benefiting Japan's Rapidus [2][6]. - Japan's semiconductor revival is driven by a 2020 semiconductor shortage, leading to government-led initiatives after years of reliance on imports [3][4]. - TSMC's cost advantages stem from a balanced approach to automation, selectively automating profitable processes while retaining manual labor where cost-effective, unlike Japan's previous all-or-nothing automation attempts [3][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - TSMC has become the most automated semiconductor company globally, carefully timing its investments in cutting-edge technology, such as EUV lithography equipment, which can cost hundreds of billions of yen [4]. - The article notes that while South Korean manufacturers also focus on cost control, Japan's corporate culture often hinders frontline decision-making, impacting competitiveness [4][5]. - The US faces challenges in revitalizing its semiconductor industry due to high labor costs and immigration restrictions limiting the influx of skilled engineers [4][5]. Group 3: China's Semiconductor Aspirations - China is making significant strides in its semiconductor industry, with government support aimed at reducing reliance on foreign technology, with predictions suggesting it could lead the sector by 2050 [5][6]. - Despite US regulations prohibiting the sale of advanced semiconductor equipment to China, these measures are expected to slow but not halt China's semiconductor development [5][6]. - The article highlights that possessing manufacturing equipment alone is insufficient for success; technical know-how is crucial, as evidenced by Intel and Samsung's struggles to match TSMC's yield rates despite having similar equipment [5][6]. Group 4: Future of Japan's Semiconductor Industry - Japan's success in the semiconductor sector hinges on attracting buyers, as competing directly with giants like TSMC and Samsung is deemed impractical [6]. - The generational shift in TSMC's management may lead to a less accommodating approach to smaller demands, presenting an opportunity for Rapidus to fill the gap if it can secure Japanese clients [6]. - The article concludes that without collaboration among Japanese companies, Rapidus's efforts may be futile, emphasizing the need for unity in the industry [6].