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高盛:美国电力项目储备,光伏风电集中未来两年,天然气和储能未来规划激增

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the U.S. energy landscape, driven by a surge in renewable energy projects, particularly solar and battery storage, while also noting a substantial increase in planned natural gas and storage projects for the long term [3][6][7]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Growth - Solar and battery storage projects are expected to dominate the new capacity additions in the short term, with solar projects alone accounting for 94% and 99% of the new capacity forecasted by Goldman Sachs for the next two years [1][6]. - In the first nine months of the year, over 90% of the 32 GW of new capacity added was from solar and battery storage [4]. - The current planning for solar projects has reached a historical high of 122 GW, while natural gas and storage projects have seen increases of 127% and 60%, respectively, reaching 40 GW and 67 GW [3][5]. Group 2: Project Delays and Challenges - Despite strong growth, the article emphasizes that the high rate of project delays remains a significant challenge, with 36.5% of planned solar projects and 38.6% of planned wind projects facing delays of over six months [5]. - In contrast, natural gas projects have a much lower delay rate of 11.2%, indicating better execution efficiency [5]. Group 3: Long-term Planning and Labor Shortages - Looking ahead, there is a clear shift in project timelines, with most renewable energy projects expected to come online between 2026 and 2027, while a significant number of natural gas projects are planned for 2028 to 2030 [6][7]. - Labor shortages are identified as a critical constraint on achieving energy growth targets, with an estimated need for over 500,000 new jobs in the electricity and grid sectors by 2030 [8][10]. - The aging workforce is a concern, as 30% of electricians are nearing retirement, and training skilled workers takes 3-5 years [9].