高盛：礼来，处在“生物制药史上最强新产品周期”前夜

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that Eli Lilly's oral weight loss candidate orforglipron represents "one of the most important new product cycles across the entire biopharmaceutical coverage" [1][5] Group 1: Product Development and Market Position - Eli Lilly is solidifying its leading position in the global biopharmaceutical industry through strong performance and forward-looking innovation [3] - The company reported third-quarter results that exceeded market expectations and raised its full-year guidance, with strong sales of weight loss drugs [4] - Mounjaro's revenue grew by 109% year-over-year, while Zepbound's revenue increased significantly by 184% [4] Group 2: Pricing Dynamics and Market Strategy - Goldman Sachs highlights that the pricing dynamics for GLP-1 drugs remain stable, with no significant price erosion observed despite CVS prioritizing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy over Eli Lilly's Zepbound [4] - Management indicated that the pricing dynamics for GLP-1 drugs are in line with their expectations, and they have not seen any significant pricing erosion following CVS's recent decision [4] Group 3: Regulatory and Approval Insights - The oral weight loss drug orforglipron meets at least four of the FDA's national priority voucher program requirements, paving the way for expedited approval [6] - Eli Lilly plans to utilize a sales model for orforglipron similar to Zepbound, focusing on the LillyDirect platform for direct-to-consumer sales [6] Group 4: Pipeline and Future Prospects - Beyond the GLP-1 product line, Eli Lilly is excelling in next-generation obesity compounds, with phase II data for selective amylin agonist eloralintide expected to be released at the upcoming obesity conference [6] - The company has disclosed that its Lp(a) project muvalaplin has entered phase III clinical trials, with phase II data showing over an 85% reduction in biomarker levels compared to placebo at the highest dose [6] Group 5: Valuation and Target Price - Goldman Sachs maintains a P/E valuation of 26.0x based on rolling estimates, believing that Eli Lilly is well-positioned ahead of the orforglipron launch in 2026 [7] - The target price for Eli Lilly has been raised from $879 to $951, reaffirming a buy rating [8]